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December 02-03, 2019 | Dubai, UAE
Oil & Gas
2
nd
International Conference and Expo on
Journal of Industrial and Environmental Chemistry | Volume 3
Comparative risk evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the Libyan EPSA IV and its
modified model LEPSA I
Saad A Balhasan, Brian F Towler, Khaled O Al-Hadramy
and
Biltayib M Biltayib
American University of Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
T
his research extends the analysis of the fourth model of
Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement (EPSA IV)
and our proposed modification of the Libyan Exploration and
Production Sharing Agreement (LEPSA I) to field applications.
The paper focuses on risk evaluation and analyzing the
sensitivity of the fiscal terms of EPSA IV model (cost recovery,
A factors, and B factors) and the fiscal terms of LEPSA I model
(initial production share, the geologic probability of success,
and the oil reference price) on the profitability indicators of
Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
The deterministic analysis method and stochastic analysis
method using the Monte Carlo Simulation have been used
in this study. The two methods were used to show the
probability distribution of the NPV and IRR on the basis of the
random variables of fiscal terms in the two models of EPSA
IV and LEPSA I, respectively. The simulation output of the
development field scenario of enhanced oil recovery using
CO2 injection showed that the cost recovery is a very sensitive
term on the NPV and IRR in the EPSA IV model. But, the A
and B factors in the EPSA IV model have different sensitivities
on the NPV and IRR. The B factor 3 and B factor 1 are more
sensitive on the NPV and IRR than are other factors. The B
factor 4 and A factor 4 have shown less effect on the NPV and
IRR than the other factors. Moreover, the simulation output
showed that the initial share and reference price are more
sensitive to the NPV and IRR than the probability of success
on the basis of the LEPSA I model.
e
:
saad.balhasan@aurak.ac.aeJ Ind Environ Chem, Volume:3
DOI: 10.35841/2591-7331-C3-015