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Page 39
April 08-09, 2019 | Zurich, Switzerland
2
nd
International Conference on
Green Energy & Technology
Environmental Risk Assessment and Remediation | Volume 3
ISSN: 2529-8046
Notes:
The solar irradiance dictates the climate
Habibullo I Abdussamatov
Pulkovo observatory of the RAS, Russia
T
he climate system depends at an extremely
complex set of long-term (≥ 20 years) physical
processes in the ocean-land-atmosphere system,
which, in turn, is influenced by diverse, mainly
quasi-bicentennial variation of the total solar
irradiance (TSI). If we take into account only by
direct impact of variations TSI~0.4%, the resulting
increment in the planetary temperature is ~0.3 K;
however, it is extremely important as a triggering
mechanism of subsequent multiple feedback
effects, which cause a significant change in the
magnitude of the Earth's Bond albedo, the content
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the
transmission of the atmospheric transparency
window. Their climatic influence may up to three
times as strong as directly TSI variations do. Quasi-
bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI along with
very important successive multiple influences of
the feedback effects are the main fundamental
cause of corresponding alternations of climate
variation fromwarming to the Little Ice Age and by
the main factor that controls the climate system.
The impact of an increase in the area of the cloud
cover, presumably caused by the growth of the
cosmic rays flux, on climate is practically absent.
The long-term (≥ 20 years) equilibrium state of
the average annual energy balance between the
Earth and outer space determines stability of the
climate. However, since ~1990, the Sun has been
in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial
variation in TSI. The observed practically
proportional decrease in the average annual
TSI portion absorbed by the Earth since ~1990
has not been compensated by a decrease in the
average annual energy radiated into space due to
the thermal inertia of the oceans. Since ~1990,
the Earth radiates more energy back to space
than it absorbs. As a result, the Earth has, and
will continue to have, a negative average annual
energy balance and a long-term adverse thermal
condition. Such gradual loss in the total amount
of the solar energy accumulated by the oceans
during the twentieth century has resulted in the
beginning of a quasi-century epoch of a new Little
Ice Age after the maximum phase of solar cycle
24. The warming ended in the 2016. The start of
the solar Grand minimum is anticipated in the
solar cycle 27±1 in 2043±11 and the beginning
of the phase of deep cooling in the new Little
Ice Age in 2060±11. Long-term changes in the
Sun’s energy output can to explain simultaneous
climate changes on planets of the Solar system in
the last quarter of the 20th century. The gradual
weakening of the Gulf Stream power will result in
even stronger cooling in the zone of its action. We
have developing the special space project “Lunar
Optical Observatory” on monitoring energy
imbalance between the Earth and space.
e
:
abduss@gaoran.ruEnviron Risk Assess Remediat, Volume 3
DOI: 10.4066/2529-8046-C1-003