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academies
Virol Res J 2017 Volume 1 Issue 3
International Virology Conference
October 30-31, 2017 | Toronto, Canada
T
his study aims to create a mathematical model to better
understand the spread of Ebola, the mathematical
dynamics of the disease, and preventative behaviors. An
epidemiological model is created with a system of nonlinear
differential equations, and the model examines the disease
transmission dynamics with isolation through stability
analysis. All parameters are approximated and results are
also exploited by simulations. Sensitivity analysis is used to
discuss the effect of intervention strategies. The system has
only one equilibrium point, which is the disease-free state. If
traditional burials of Ebola victims are allowed, the possible
end state is never stable. Provided safe burial practices with
no traditional rituals, the endemic-free state is stable if the
basic reproductive number is less than one. Model behaviors
correspond with empirical facts. The model can predict the
total number of infected, number of deaths and duration
of outbreaks among others, and it can be used to educate
about prophylactic behaviors, and develop strategies that
alter environment to achieve the disease-free state. A future
work of this research is to incorporate vaccination in the
model when the vaccines are developed and the effects of
vaccines are known better.
e:
yslee@manchester.eduModeling the spread of Ebola
Young Lee
Manchester University, USA