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academies

Microbiology: Current Research

Volume 2

International Conference on

Emerging Diseases, Outbreaks & Case Studies

Annual Meeting on

March 28-29, 2018 | Orlando, USA

Influenza

Valeriy D Perminov

BioTeckFarm Ltd., Russia

Agent-based models for influenza epidemic dynamics and its decision-making

capability

gents-based models (ABMs) had become more and more

popular in applied mathematics. During last 15 years large

number of ABMs have been created and used in different

scientific areas (ecology, economy, epidemiology, human

behavior to name a few), but in this talk I am going to tell only

about ABMs for influenza epidemic/pandemic dynamics in

cities. Because of our only partial knowledge of agents’ rules

for interaction with each other and with environment, such

models contain unknown parameters. For our special ABMs

these parameters are probabilities of getting infected in

different age groups of citizens. These parameters usually are

evaluated with the help of several numbers extracted from

available patterns and/or external considerations (for example,

cumulated illness attack rates in age groups). Being integrals

over lower level of agent population such numbers do not have

unique and exact relationship with model’s parameters. So, the

evaluation based on such numbers is carried out by a no unique

selection of model parameters’ values that correspond to these

numbers. I will tell about a new approach to creation of ABMs

together with mathematical substantiation of a correct method

for evaluation of model’s parameters. Using this approach we

get: a) a numerical assessment of the model’s and patterns’

proximity and b) capability (under some conditions) to estimate

a level of coming pandemic in the city under consideration and

choose administrative and interventional measures before and

during future outbreak and evaluate their efficiency and cost.

Speaker Biography

Valeriy D Perminov worked as a Senior Researcher of Central Aerohydrodynamic

Institute in Moscow for a long time. His research interests include rarefied gas

dynamics, ill-posed problems, agent-based models and its application to infectious

diseases spreading.